中国人口生育变化及影响因素——基于第六次人口普查的分析

本文在"六普"汇总数据的基础上,定量分析中国人口的生育水平、生育模式的变化和生育变化的影响因素。研究发现,在生育水平持续下降的情况下,结构性因素逐渐成为左右未来中国生育水平走向的决定性因素;生育模式正在向初婚初育间隔扩大,生育孩次向低孩次集中的方向发展;尽管年龄别已婚生育率的变化使得中国一般生育率上升9.613%,在导致生育水平下降的各因素中,育龄妇女年龄结构、婚姻状态等人口因素的影响显得越来越重要。研究结果对于正确理解我国的人口形势,科学地规划和调整人口政策具有十分重要的意义。

The Fertility Change in China and its Influencing Factors: An Analysis of the Sixth Census

Based on the data of the sixth census, this paper analyzes the fertility level, fertility pattern, and the factors influencing fertility behavior quantitatively. It is found that under the continual decline of fertility rate, structural factors are becoming crucial to the fertility change, the interval between first marriage and first childbearing is enlarging, and the children born tend to be the first child in most families, it shows that the age-specific marital fertility rate has resulted in the increase of general fertility rate by 9.613%, that the age structure and marital status are increasingly important factors affecting fertility. The fertility changes is great significant to understand the tendency of population development and the proper adjustment of the population policies in China.