区域土地利用动态变化及其结构预测研究——以南通市为例

以南通市土地利用现状数据和年度变更数据为依据,采用土地利用动态度、土地利用相对变化率及土地利用程度指数三项指标,对研究区域1996-2004年间各类用地的动态演变情况作了分析,在此基础上构建Markov模型,预测了规划期内南通市土地利用结构的变化。结果表明:(1)纵向上看:8年间全市的耕地数量减少最多,居民点及工矿用地增加最多,但是牧草地和交通用地的年变化率分别高于二者;(2)横向上看:市区各类用地的变化幅度都大于全市整体水平,海门、如皋和市区的土地利用程度处于快速发展时期;启东、海安的土地利用程度处于一般发展阶段;如东和通州的土地利用程度处于缓慢发展阶段;(3)预测结果显示2010年和2020年全市的耕地面积会减少6509公顷和19045公顷,显著高于各类建设用地的增加量,未利用地开发强度不够。

On dynamic change of regional land use and its structure forecast: A case study in Nantong City

On the basis of present and revised land use data,this paper adopted three indicators of dynamic change degree,relative changing rate of land types and land use degree,and analyzed the dynamic change of all land types from 1996-2004 in Nantong City.With the building of Markov model,it forecasted the future land use structure within planning period.The results were deduced: firstly,the amount of cultivated land will decrease the most with the huge increase of construction land correspondingly,but both of them change quite slowly per year.Secondly,the land use change in city area is stronger than in other areas,and in terms of land use degree,Haimen,Rugao and urban area are in the fast-growing period;Qidong and Haian ares in the general-growing period;and Rudong and Tongzhou are in the slowly-growing period.Finally,the forecasting result indicated that cultivated land will drop 6509 hm2 and 19045hm2 respectively in 2010 and 2020,which both are much more than the climbing amount of construction land,and meanwhile,the unused land won't be exploited intensively.