对外贸易政策与经济增长：度量方法和基于省际面板数据的实证研究

对外贸易政策度量方法的缺乏使得经济学界长期忽视了对外贸易政策与经济增长的实证研究,借鉴西方学术界在研究贸易开放过程中发展的度量方法对中国省际对外贸易政策进行度量,在此基础之上使用省际面板数据研究了对外贸易政策与经济增长之间的实证关系。使用普通最小二乘法,发现对外贸易政策对经济增长有稳健的促进作用;为消除控制变量可能存在的内生性问题,使用GMM方法进行估计,发现对外贸易政策对经济增长仍然有稳健的促进作用。

Foreign Trade Policy and Economic Growth: Measurement Method and Empirical Research Based on Intra-provincial Panel Data

Lacking of foreign trade policy measurement methods makes it neglect the empirical research between foreign trade policy and economic growth for long time.In this paper,we used measurement method which developed in research of trade openness by western academic to measure China＇s inter-provincial foreign trade policy.Based on it,we studies the empirical relationship between foreign trade policy and economic growth using China＇s inter-provincial panel data.We used OLS method and found more open foreign trade policy can promote economic growth robustly;for the aim of eliminating endogeneity problem bring by control variables,we used GMM method and also found foreign trade policy has a robust promote role on economic growth.