二重趋势性季节型电力负荷预测组合灰色神经网络模型

对于具有增长和波动二重趋势性的季节型电力负荷,首次提出了季节型负荷预测的组合优化灰色神经网络模型,研究了同时考虑两种(非线性)趋势的复杂季节型负荷预测问题,说明了此优化模型分别优于两种单一发展趋势负荷预测模型,给出了电力负荷预测的应用实例,为季节型电力负荷预测提供了一种新的、有效的方法。

Combined Optimum Gray Neural Netwo rk Model of the Seasonal Powerload Forecasting with the Double Trends

For the seasonal power load forecasting with the double trends of increasing and fluctuating,it is proposed first for the combined optimum gray neural network model of seasonal load forecasting We study the problem of complex seasonal load forecasting with double nonlinear trends The optimum model is better than the tow load forecasting models with one development trend An application case of the power load forecasting is given We provide a new and effective method for the seasonal power load forecasting.