Calibrated predictions for multivariate competing risks models |
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Authors: | Malka Gorfine Li Hsu David M Zucker Giovanni Parmigiani |
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Institution: | 1. Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion—Israel Institute of Technology, Technion City, 32000, Haifa, Israel 2. Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, 98109-1024, USA 3. Department of Statistics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 91905, Jerusalem, Israel 4. Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA, 02115, USA 5. Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, 02115, USA
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Abstract: | Prediction models for time-to-event data play a prominent role in assessing the individual risk of a disease, such as cancer. Accurate disease prediction models provide an efficient tool for identifying individuals at high risk, and provide the groundwork for estimating the population burden and cost of disease and for developing patient care guidelines. We focus on risk prediction of a disease in which family history is an important risk factor that reflects inherited genetic susceptibility, shared environment, and common behavior patterns. In this work family history is accommodated using frailty models, with the main novel feature being allowing for competing risks, such as other diseases or mortality. We show through a simulation study that naively treating competing risks as independent right censoring events results in non-calibrated predictions, with the expected number of events overestimated. Discrimination performance is not affected by ignoring competing risks. Our proposed prediction methodologies correctly account for competing events, are very well calibrated, and easy to implement. |
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