基于小波分析的我国外资直接投资、可再生能源消费、经济增长、二氧化碳排放的动态关系研究

2021年全国两会将“碳达峰”和“碳中和”首次写入政府工作报告,碳排放问题引起了社会各界的高度关注。文章采用1979年至2017年间的相关数据,运用Morlet小波分析法（小波相关、连续小波变换、小波偏相干、小波重相干等）研究了我国外资直接投资、可再生能源消费、经济增长和二氧化碳排放这四种因素之间的联系,并指出了四个变量间的联系随着频率和时间的变化而变化的规律。尽管四个变量在时域上并不存在一致性的联系,但在频域上存在明显的小波相干性,以及较强的超前和滞后联系,从经济学的角度支持了外资直接投资和可再生能源消费有助于改善我国的经济发展的观点。研究还表明,从中长期来看,外资直接投资对我国的环境恶化有加剧作用,因此政府必须统筹兼顾经济发展与环境保护,从战略高度应对环境恶化的可能后果。

On the Dynamic Connection among Foreign Direct Investment,Renewable Energy Consumption,Economic Growth and Carbon Dioxide Emission in China Based on Wavelet Analysis

In 2021, the National People's Congress put peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutralization into the government work report for the first time, and so carbon emissions arouses great concern from all walks of life. Based on the relevant data from 1979 to 2017, this paper uses Morlet wavelet analysis (wavelet correlation, continuous wavelet transform, wavelet partial coherence, wavelet re-coherence, etc.) to study the relationship among the four factors of foreign direct investment, renewable energy consumption, economic growth and carbon dioxide emission in China, and points out the law that the relationship among the four variables changes with frequency and time. The study reveals that although there is no consistent relation among the four variables in the time domain, there is obvious wavelet coherence in the frequency domain, as well as strong leading and lagging relation, which supports the view that foreign direct investment and renewable energy consumption are helpful to improve China's economic development from an economic point of view. The study also suggests that in the medium and long term, foreign direct investment will aggravate the environmental degradation of our country, so the government must give overall consideration to economic development and environmental protection, and deal with the possible consequences of environmental degradation from a strategic perspective.