湖北耕地变化驱动力分析

研究目的:根据湖北省耕地变化特征分析其驱动力因素。研究方法:文献资料法、比较分析法、统计分析法、模糊综合分析法。研究结果:(1)近50年湖北耕地数量总体递减快,且以旱地减少居多;(2)湖北耕地变化区域差异明显,表现为经济发达地区比经济欠发达地区流失严重,平原地区比丘陵地区减少量大;(3)根据湖北耕地变化的驱动因素和驱动力指数模型值将影响湖北耕地变化的驱动力分为四类空间区域:最优经济福利-生态安全驱动区、最优经济福利-粮食安全驱动区、粮食安全-生存型经济福利驱动区、生存型经济福利-生态安全驱动区。研究结论:采用模糊综合方法可以科学的进行区域耕地变化驱动力分析。

Analysis on the Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Change in Hubei

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the driving forces factors of cultivated land in Hubei according to its characteristics.Methods of documentation,comparative analysis,statistic analysis and fuzzy comprehensive analysis were employed.The results indicate that:(1)The quantities of farming land in Hubei decrease overally in the past 50 years,and the decreasing of dry land is in the majority;(2)The regional differences of cultivated land change in Hubei were obvious,which display that the cultivated land of the developed areas and the plain areas were drained more seriously than the less-developed areas' and the hilly areas';(3)The driving forces of cultivated land change in Hubei can be divided into four kinds of spatial regions according to the driving factors and the driving forces index model:the most superior economical welfare-ecological safety actuational area;the most superior economical welfare-grain safety actuational area;the grain safety-survival economical welfare actuational area;the survival economical welfare-ecological safety actuational area.Research concludes that using the fuzzy synthetic method can be scientific to analyze driving forces of the regional farming change.