D-separation, forecasting, and economic science: a conjecture |
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Authors: | David A Bessler Zijun Wang |
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Institution: | 1. Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
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Abstract: | The paper considers the conjecture that forecasts from preferred economic models or theories d-separate forecasts from less preferred models or theories from the Actual realization of the variable for which a scientific explanation is sought. D-separation provides a succinct notion to represent forecast dominance of one set of forecasts over another; it provides, as well, a criterion for model preference as a fundamental device for progress in economic science. We demonstrate these ideas with examples from three areas of economic modeling. |
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