Medicines in the 1990's: Experience with a Delphi forecast

‘Medicines in the 1990's’ created great public interest when it was published recently. It forecast, for example, that by 1990 it should be possible to replace almost all parts of the body, except the brain and spinal cord with transplants or prostheses. It also predicted that by 1990, the social use of medicines will have become accepted as legitimate. This article describes step by step, how the Delphi forecast was made and the effect which it has had.