Nuptiality models and the two-sex problem in national population forecasts |
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Authors: | Nico Keilman |
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Affiliation: | 1. N.I.D.I., P.O. Box 955, 2270 AZ, Voorburg, The Netherlands
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Abstract: | This paper describes the two-sex problem in nuptiality models, focussing on applications in national population forecasts. Requirements for a realistic two-sex marriage model are mentioned, together with additional considerations important in the context of official forecasts. Recent nuptiality models violate the requirements to a certain extent and/or do not meet the additional considerations. A new model, used in the 1980-based population forecasts of the Netherlands compiled by the Netherlands' Central Bureau of Statistics, is described. When confronted with the requirements and considerations, the CBS-model, although not ideal, is seen to possess relatively good characteristics. |
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