Nuptiality models and the two-sex problem in national population forecasts

This paper describes the two-sex problem in nuptiality models, focussing on applications in national population forecasts. Requirements for a realistic two-sex marriage model are mentioned, together with additional considerations important in the context of official forecasts. Recent nuptiality models violate the requirements to a certain extent and/or do not meet the additional considerations. A new model, used in the 1980-based population forecasts of the Netherlands compiled by the Netherlands' Central Bureau of Statistics, is described. When confronted with the requirements and considerations, the CBS-model, although not ideal, is seen to possess relatively good characteristics.