中国西北地区人口增长对土地退化的驱动作用分析

文章通过定性定量分析西北地区人口增长与粮食生产系统和土地压力响应之间的相关关系,发现人口的增长主要与耕地面积的扩展有较强相关性,与单位粮食亩产增加等变量指标的关系较弱。进一步分析发现,即便是在人口增长与耕地扩大的关系中,实际的耕地增长和粮食需求也远远大于实际人口增长的需求,由此可以看到在西北地区粮食生产和耕地面积扩大的过程中,人口增长并不如人们一般认为的那样大,人口增长对土地退化只能承担一部分责任,不构成最重要的原因。

Impact of Population Growth on Land Degradation in Northwest China

On the base of analyzing the correlations among population growth, land pressure and the respond of food productive system, the author found that during the past 50 years population growth has more close relationship with the calculated land expansion than with the enhance of yields per unit area. Furthermore, we found that even during the calculated land increasing process, the real calculated land increase surpassed greatly the calculated land demand caused by population growth. So we concluded that population growth is only part impacting factor on the land degradation and it is not the most important factor in land degradation process in northwest China.KH*3D