互联网对中国全要素生产率有促进作用吗?

互联网发展对碳生产率的影响与工业化阶段息息相关。基于1996—2019年154个经济体的面板数据，从工业化阶段演进视角系统考察互联网发展对碳生产率的影响。研究发现：（1）互联网发展对碳生产率提升具有显著的促进作用；（2）当以工业化水平为门槛变量时，互联网发展对碳生产率的影响存在双门槛效应，尤其是随着工业化从中期进入后期，该提升作用不断加大；（3）机制检验表明，互联网发展抑制了工业化初期经济体的技术进步，提升工业化中期经济体的资源配置效率和工业化后期经济体的技术进步来影响碳生产率；（4）当前中国处于工业化中期，应继续促进互联网发展，提高工业化水平，激发资源配置效率在提升碳生产率方面的潜能。因此，各经济体的政策制定者应加快互联网发展，促进工业化进程与互联网发展的协同效应并务实政策着力点。

ICT and economic growth-comparing developing,emerging and developed countries

The impact of internet development on carbon productivity is closely related to the industrialisation stage. Based on panel data from 154 economies from 1996 to 2019, this study systematically examines the impact of internet development on carbon productivity from the perspective of industrialisation stage evolution. This study found that: (1) Internet development has a significant positive effect on carbon productivity improvement; (2) When industrialisation level is used as a threshold variable, there is a double threshold effect of internet development on carbon productivity, especially as industrialisation enters the later stage, the positive effect becomes stronger; (3) Mechanism testing shows that internet development inhibits technological progress in the early stage of industrialisation, improves resource allocation efficiency in the middle stage of industrialisation, and promotes technological progress in the later stage of industrialisation to affect carbon productivity; (4) China is currently in the middle stage of industrialisation and should continue to promote internet development, improve industrialisation level, and stimulate the potential of resource allocation efficiency in improving carbon productivity. Therefore, policymakers in each economy should accelerate internet development, promote the synergy between industrialisation and internet development, and focus on practical policy efforts.