西部地区城镇化与工业化协调发展实证研究

本文首先分析了西部地区城镇化与工业化的发展现状,得出西部地区城镇化与工业化总体水平较低;其次,通过IU、NU指标的测度,得出二者未能实现协调发展;再次,通过构建西部地区城镇化与工业化互动发展的VAR模型,进一步分析出这种不协调关系的表现是城镇化未能推动工业化的发展;最后,我们通过城镇化与工业化偏离度的测量,分析了西部地区城镇化与工业化协调发展的演进趋势。这些研究结论将为推进西部地区城镇化与工业化的协调发展提供相应的理论支撑。

An Empirical Study of the Coordinated Development between Urbanization and Industrialization in the Western Region

The Conference of the Central Committee emphasizes that progresses of urbanization and industrialization should be accompanied, and the development of urbanization in the central and western regions be given priority. By analysis of the current development of urbanization and industrialization in the West and by applying the measurement of IU, NU indexes, it is found that the overall development level there is relatively low and the two fail to advance coordinately. Then, further analysis of the performance of this incongruous relationship by building the VAR model shows that the former has failed to promote the development of the latter. Finally, we measure the deviation of urbanization and industrialization, and predict the evolution trend of their balanced development in the future. We hope that these research findings can provide some theoretical support for promoting the coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization in the western region.