省域宏观经济预测评价与方法选择

本文根据省域宏观经济运行的基本规律与特点,着眼于提高省域宏观经济的预测精度,结合现有的宏观经济预测方法,探讨宏观预测模型与省域经济的契合问题,提出预测精度较高且具有很强针对性的组合预测法。研究表明,这种组合预测法具有良好的预测效果及其他方法无法比拟的精度优势,可为完善省域宏观经济预测提供新的思路。

The Economic Prediction Evaluation and Method in the Provincial Macro-economy

This paper,according to the basic rules and characteristics of provincial macro-economy operation,to improve the precision of prediction and to use for reference of the existing prediction method,explores the predictive mode and the combination in the provincial economy.Studies show that this group of predictive methods has achieved a good result,an unparalleled one compared with others,thus providing a new thinking way for provincial macro-economy.