中国生产服务业与制造业共生演化模型实证研究

本文从共生理论视角来研究生产服务业与制造业的互动发展,基于生态学种群Logistic共生演化模型,对生产服务业与制造业互动阶段进行划分并给出具体特征表现,生产服务业与制造业的共生动态演化过程可由分段Logistic曲线叠加进行描述,建立最大环境容量模型,对中国1983-2007年的生产服务业和制造业共生演化进行了实证分析。结果表明,生产服务业和制造业都处于成长期,二者之间互动发展属于非对称互惠共生模式, 生产服务业对制造业的影响大于制造业对生产服务业的影响。

Research About Symbiotic Evolutionary Model of Producer Services and Manufacturing Industry in China

In this paper,the interactive development mechanism between producer services and manufacturing industry is explained based on biologic symbiosis theory.Based on symbiotic evolution Logistic model, the interactive stage of producer services and manufacturing is divided and the specific characteristics are given.A segmented Logistic function is used to describe accurately the symbiotic evolution process.Based on the data of China from 1983 to 2007,the symbiotic evolutionary process of producer services and manufacturing industry is analyzed practically.And the maximum population capacities are also modeled and predicted.The results show that the interaction between product services and manufacturing are asymmetric mutualism mode and are both in growth stage.Production services play a more important role in promoting the development for manufacturing,manufacturing have a relatively weak effect on producer services.