我国提高能源效率的目标设计

本文基于省级面板数据,通过构建静态和动态面板数据模型,对我国能源效率变动的影响因素进行了深入分析,并通过样本内拟合标准和样本外预测标准进行模型选择,以确定最优的计量模型,进而对"十二五"期间我国的提高能源效率的目标进行了估计。研究结果表明,人均收入水平、产业结构、城市化水平、政府科研支出、技术进步、能源价格以及资本调整速度都对我国的能源使用效率有重要影响。模拟结果表明,在一切照旧情景下,"十二五"期间我国的节能潜力也可达到5%左右。而在政府制定适当的节能政策的情况下,"十二五"期间的节能潜力可以达到14%至17%左右,但是更高的节能目标不容易实现。

Improvement Target of Energy Efficiency and Its Design

In this paper,the main forces of China’s energy efficiency evolution are analyzed based on both the static and dynamic panel data models,and the potential of energy saving in the 12th five-year period is forecasted based on the regression model selected by in-sample and out-of-sample model selection criteria.The results demonstrate that per capita income,industry structure,urbanization level,governmental expenditure for research,technology progress,energy price and capital adjustment speed all have great impacts on China’s energy efficiency.The further results of scenario simulations show that the potential of energy saving in the 12th five-year period is about to reach roughly 14%,but seems hard to surpass 17%.