人均GDP翻两番: 年均增长率的区间估算

 “实现人均GDP到二０二０年比二０００年翻两番”是十七大报告中的一个崭新提法,它为我们清晰地描绘了中国在重要战略机遇期应当达到的基本发展目标。本文在考虑人口自然增长率时间序列数据变化的基础上,采用移动平均数法和增长率的数学分解法,对达到上述发展目标的人均GDP年平均增长率与实际GDP年平均增长率进行了区间估算,估算的结果表明：必须继续严格执行计划生育政策、控制好各个时期的经济增长速度、保证宏观调控政策落到实处并完成十七大提出的各项配套任务,才能使人均GDP翻两番的发展目标在科学发展观的框架下得到充分实现。

Quadrupling the Per Capita GDP: Interval Estimation for Annually Growth Rate and its Meaning

“Quadrupling the per capita GDP of the year 2000 by 2020” is a new term in the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China（CPC）which depicts the basic developing target clearly which China has to achieve in the most of the important period of strategic opportunities. Based on the time-series data of population’s natural growth rate, this paper uses the method of shift-averaging and the mathematical growth rate decomposing to estimate the annual growth rate of per capita GDP, the result indicates that we need to strictly carry out the Family Planning Policy, to control the economic growth rate in each period, to put the macroeconomic control policies into effect and complete the each accessory task of the 17th National Congress of CPC. The developing target of quadrupling the per capita GDP can be fully achieved in the frame of scientific concept for development. Otocranial pictography deoxyglucose nervate torpotron. 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