转型期人民币有效汇率指数的构造及权重的确定

完全的固定汇率制和浮动汇率制在近中期不符合中国的情况,中国可采用钉住一篮子货币的汇率制度,其制度关键就是如何赋予篮子货币中每种货币的具体权重,众多文献都将贸易差额的稳定作为货币篮子权重的选择目标,优点是能降低汇率变动对我国实体经济的冲击,缺点是不能规避非汇率变动如我国大规模降低贸易壁垒、资本市场开放后突然出现大的资本冲击等对我国实体经济的冲击。相对生产率进步指标纳入权重的计算,既吸收了篮子货币的优点,又能规避非汇率对实体经济的冲击。

To Build RMB effective Exchange Rate Index and Weight at the Stage of Economic Model Change in China

Fixed or float exchange rate regime will not have been adequate to China. China may adopt the foreign rate regime petting basketball currency. The key is how to give many weights with per currency. Many literatures look trade balance as choice aim in basketball currency. It's priorities are to reduce attacking on China's real economy when exchange rate changes,but defects are that it can't avoid no rate changes,for example,large scale reducing trade barriers,a great deal of sudden capital rush when capital market opens to attack real economy. The thesis introduces relative productive rate advance index in the course of calculating weights,not only adopt the priorities of basketball currencies,but also avoid no exchange rate changes to attack real economy. Besides,it also gives some suggestions.