Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach |
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| Authors: | Barbara Entwisle Nathalie E Williams Ashton M Verdery Ronald R Rindfuss Stephen J Walsh George P Malanson Peter J Mucha Brian G Frizzelle Philip M McDaniel Xiaozheng Yao Benjamin W Heumann Pramote Prasartkul Yothin Sawangdee Aree Jampaklay |
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| Institution: | 1.Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,Chapel Hill,USA;2.Carolina Population Center,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,Chapel Hill,USA;3.Jackson School of International Studies,University of Washington,Seattle,USA;4.Department of Sociology,University of Washington,Seattle,USA;5.Department of Sociology,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,Chapel Hill,USA;6.East-West Center,Honolulu,USA;7.Department of Geography,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,Chapel Hill,USA;8.Department of Geography,University of Iowa,Iowa City,USA;9.Department of Mathematics,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,Chapel Hill,USA;10.Department of Geography, Center for Geographic Information Science,Central Michigan University,Mount Pleasant,USA;11.Institute for Population and Social Research,Mahidol University,Bangkok,Thailand;12.Davis Library,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,Chapel Hill,USA;13.Virginia Tech University,Blacksburg,USA;14.Department of Sociology and Criminology,Pennsylvania State University,University Park,USA |
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| Abstract: | This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response. |
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