Risk factors for teenage childbirths among child welfare clients: Findings from Sweden

This study contributes to the literature on preventing teenage childbirths by asking whether the pattern and strength of risk factors is the same for high-risk child welfare clients, as for their peers in the majority population. Longitudinal register data on more than 700,000 Swedish females, including around 29,000 child welfare clients, were analyzed by means of linear probability models and calculations of population attributable fractions. Comparisons of effect sizes suggest that the differences in pattern were marginal, but there were notable differences in strength. The girls' school failure was the most prominent risk factor across all groups, also when prevalence was taken into account. In the majority population, the hypothetical reduction of teenage childbirths is on the scale of 30% if this risk factor could be eliminated. In the child welfare subgroups, however, the hypothetical improvement was even larger, around 40%. Reducing the high rate of school failure could thus yield a profound reduction in teenage childbirths in child welfare subgroups, where the incidence of teenage childbirth is substantially higher compared to other peers.