人民币均衡汇率决定的理论分析

由于目前人民币尚未完全实现自由兑换,不能进入国际市场,因而其汇率也不可能通过国际市场自发形成;因此,西方诸多以直接外汇市场为前提的汇率理论在中国的应用受到了限制。本文在购买力平价的基础上建立人民币汇率模型,并提出决定物价水平的多因素分析,借此客观地描绘人民币均衡汇率的形成。

A Theoretical Analysis to the Decision of RMB Balance Exchange Rate

As at present the RMB has not fully realized a free exchange, and could not enter the international market, the exchange rate could not be spontaneously formed through the international market, hence many a western theory of exchange rate with a premise of direct exchange market is restricted in its application in China. This article establishes a model of RMB exchange rate on the basis of normal price purchasing power, and puts up a multi-factors analysis in deciding the price level, to describe objectively the formation of RMB balance exchange rate.