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Correcting the Errors: Volatility Forecast Evaluation Using High‐Frequency Data and Realized Volatilities
Authors:Torben G Andersen  Tim Bollerslev  Nour Meddahi
Abstract:We develop general model‐free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy‐to‐implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing literature can result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return volatility predictability.
Keywords:Continuous‐time models  integrated volatility  realized volatility  high‐frequency data  time series forecasting  Mincer–  Zarnowitz regressions
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