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Multivariate Parametric Spatiotemporal Models for County Level Breast Cancer Survival Data
Authors:Xiaoping?Jin  Email author" target="_blank">Bradley?P?CarlinEmail author
Institution:(1) Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Mayo Mail Code 303, Minneapolis, 55455–0392, Minnesota, USA
Abstract:In clustered survival settings where the clusters correspond to geographic regions, biostatisticians are increasingly turning to models with spatially distributed random effects. These models begin with spatially oriented frailty terms, but may also include further region-level terms in the parametrization of the baseline hazards or various covariate effects (as in a spatially-varying coefficients model). In this paper, we propose a multivariate conditionally autoregressive (MCAR) model as a mixing distribution for these random effects, as a way of capturing correlation across both the regions and the elements of the random effect vector for any particular region. We then extend this model to permit analysis of temporal cohort effects, where we use the term ldquotemporal cohortrdquo to mean a group of subjects all of whom were diagnosed with the disease of interest (and thus, entered the study) during the same time period (say, calendar year). We show how our spatiotemporal model may be efficiently fit in a hierarchical Bayesian framework implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational techniques. We illustrate our approach in the context of county-level breast cancer data from 22 annual cohorts of women living in the state of Iowa, as recorded by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Hierarchical model comparison using the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), as well as maps of the fitted county-level effects, reveal the benefit of our approach.
Keywords:cancer survival data  Geographic Information System (GIS)  lattice data  Markov chain Monte Carlo methods  proportional hazards  random effects model
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