牌照拍卖如何影响上海市汽车交易

已有的关于阿尔钦-艾伦定理的理论与实证研究表明,固定成本上升所带来的收入效应有时可能造成该定理的不成立,但以前的研究者并未对此进行严格而具体的理论分析。本文首先构建一个包含不同类型消费者的理论模型,得出结论:当固定成本较小时,整个市场随固定成本的上升表现出收入效应;当固定成本较大时,整个市场随固定成本的上升表现出替代效应(即阿尔钦-艾伦定理)。进一步地,本文选取牌照拍卖政策对上海市汽车市场的影响进行了实证研究,通过构建计量模型进行回归检验,印证了理论模型的结论。

How Does the Auction of License Plates Affect the Trade of Auto in Shanghai

The existing theoretical and empirical studies show that the Alchian-Allen theorem does not necessarily hold after we take into consideration the income effect, but no work has been done in showing the exact condition in which the theorem holds. In this paper, by constructing a theoretical model allowing different types of consumers, we find that along with the rising of the fixed cost, the income effect dominates the substitution effect (i.e. the Alchian-Allen theorem) at first, but the reverse result comes after a certain amount of fixed cost. We also examine this finding empirically using the data from Shanghai’s auto market, and the results are consistent with our prior ones.