中国城市经济发展潜力的综合测度和统计估计

本文根据要素供给和市场需求的空间分布构建城市供求潜力指标,估计我国284个地级及以上城市的供求潜力,分析和评价我国城市经济规模。研究发现,不同地区发展潜力差距明显,潜力较大的城市在空间上连片分布;城市供求潜力以重点城市和主要城市群为依托按点—线—面依次推进;我国城市系统空间分布与城市供求潜力显著关联。分析还表明,许多特大和大城市可能已经出现集聚不经济,而大批中小规模的地级城市则有尚未利用的发展潜力。本研究提供了新的统计测度,研究结果可为各地区制定区域发展战略、选择优先发展城市、因地制宜推进城市化提供参考。

A Composite Measure and Statistical Estimation of China' s Urban Economic Development Potentials

Based on the spatial distribution of factor supply and market demand, this paper constructs urban supply-demand potential indexes, estimates the potentials of 284 cities, and analyzes the economic scales of these cities. The study finds that the supply-demand potentials substantially differ across regions, and the cities with higher potentials are contiguously distributed; the supply-demand potentials gradually extent from megacities and city groups to cities along major traffic corridors and further to cities in more extensive areas; the spatial pattern of China’s urban system is significantly correlated to the supply-demand potentials. The analysis also reveals that agglomeration diseconomies have appeared in megacities while unrealized potentials exist in many smaller cities. This research provides new statistical measures and the findings provide references to develop regional economic policy，choose cities with potentials, and promote regional urbanization. Urban Development Potential; Agglomeration Economies; New Economic Geography; Potential Model