政府规模、支出结构与经济增长：基于中国数据的经验研究

借以一个标准的新古典经济增长模型为基础,利用中国各省区的数据,考察政府规模和政府支出结构对经济增长的影响,希望为理解中国经济持续增长提供一个视角。研究结果表明,在本区间里,地方政府规模与地区劳动生产率水平之间显著正相关,但与地区劳动生产率增长关系不明显;在一定程度上,地方政府效率与政府规模之间存在替代关系;地方政府的生产性支出和非生产性支出对生产率增长均有积极影响;地方财政支出结构对投资有十分显著的影响,反映了地方政府有很强的投资偏好。

The Size and Composition of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: an Empirical Study Based on Chinese Data

Based on a standard neo-classical growth model and Chinese provincial data, this paper tries to explore the effects of the size and composition of provincial governments on economic performances. During our sample period, the size of provincial government, though significantly positively correlated with the level of provincial labor productivity, does not correlate with provincial economic growth. The efficiency of government, to some extent, substitutes with the size of government. Both productive government expenditure and non-productive expenditure have positive effect on the growth of labor productivity. The composition of public expenditure has significant effect on physical capital investment, and may reflect the investment bias of local governments.