Data sources for trend extrapolation in technological forecasting |
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| Authors: | AB Nutt RC Lenz HW Lanford MJ Cleary |
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| Institution: | 1. Flight Dynamics Laboratory, Air Force Systems Command, Wright-Paterson Air Force Base, Dayton, Ohio, USA;2. University of Dayton Research Center, Dayton, Ohio, USA;3. Wright State University, Dayton, Ohio, USA |
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| Abstract: | Trend extrapolation is only one part of technological forcasting. This tool must be used carefully, for the past is an indication of the future only when the environmental structure of the past remains constant in the future. If one can indeed assume that no changes have taken place then there are a series of models available for trend by extrapolation. All such models deal with empirical data, and this article has attempted to suggest some methods that will provide the forecaster with the capability to develop a data base. |
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