| Abstract: | In order to carry out the population control policy, efforts are needed to control pregancies and births. Studies show that 3 types of people may deliver babies next year: 1) those who are married at the end of the current year but have not become pregnant, 2) those who have 1 child at the present time and plan to have an additional child for special reasons, and 3) those who may get married during the 1st season of the coming year. Persons from the 1st 2 categories are easy to calculate or estimate. Persons from the 3rd category represent the core in predicting the birthrate for the coming year. Marriage ages and the distribution of dates for marriage are the 2 major sources of information for estimating the total number of persons who belong to the 3rd category. In the 1st step, we need to figure the ratio between the number of marriages in the 1st season and the total marriages for the whole year. Based upon available data for the past 3 years, a formula can be used to calculate this ratio. The marriage numbers for the 1st season of 1982 multiplied by the above percentage will be the possible number of marriages for 1982. Then, the possible number of births can be calculated by taking the birth ratio multiplied by possible marriages for 1982. Using the same method, the possible birth numbers for 1983 can be calculated. The above information shows that the total predicted births for 1983 includes 3 elements: 1) the number of those who aare married but not pregant and plan to give birth in 1983, 2) the number of those who received special permission to have a 2nd child in 1983, and 3) the number of those who may get married in 1982 and 1983 and who may give birth in 1983. |
