全球价值链分工位置及其演进规律

出口上游度可以测算全球价值链分工位置。本文首先指出已有文献在测算出口上游度时存在方法上的缺陷，然后运用改进的方法和世界投入产出数据库进行准确测算，并使用半参数估计方法研究了出口上游度和人均国内生产总值之间的关系。半参数估计结果表明，随着人均国内生产总值的提升，一国的出口上游度会越来越低，这一结果非常稳健。对出口上游度的测算表明，中国在加入世界贸易组织之前，出口上游度的变动符合一般规律；但是在加入世界贸易组织之后到全球金融危机爆发的时期，出口上游度的变动违反了一般规律；金融危机之后，中国出口上游度的变动趋势又开始符合一般规律。综合起来看，中国目前的出口上游度依然较高，未来还需继续往下游扩展。努力发展服务业出口无疑有利于降低中国的出口上游度。

Positions along Global Value Chains and Its Evolution Law

Export upstreamness can measure positions along global value chains. This article points out the inaccuracy of measuring upstreamness in existing literature, then measures it more accurately using improved index and WIOD, and finally studies the relationship between export upstreamness and GDP per capita using semi-parametric estimation. The semi-parametric estimation reveals that, one economy's export upstreamness will become lower while GDP per capita increases, and this result is robust. The measurement of export upstreamness reveals that, the movement of China's export upstreamness conforms to evolution law before its accession to WTO and after 2008. However, it does not conform to evolution law during the period from China's accession to WTO to the outbreak of global financial crisis. To sum up, China's export upstreamness is still higher than it should be, and China should promote services export to decrease export upstreamness.