次贷危机对中国实体经济的影响渠道实证研究

文章使用2006-2009年中国976500条企业层面的微观数据考察了次贷危机对中国实体经济的影响，识别了次贷危机对企业经营绩效影响的两种渠道：贸易渠道和金融渠道。实证结果发现次贷危机对危机前行业出口依存度越高企业的利润和销售增长具有显著的负面影响，同时对危机前行业财务状况越脆弱企业的利润和销售增长具有显著的负面影响，该证据表明次贷危机对中国实体经济影响的贸易渠道和金融渠道是存在的，该结论经过一系列的稳健性检验后仍然成立。进一步的研究发现次贷危机对不同规模、不同所有制、不同地区和不同行业企业绩效的影响渠道是有差异的，具有明显的指向性特征。

The Transmission Channels of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis to the Chinese Real Economy

Using the data samples of 976,500 Chinese manufacturing enterprises from 2006 to 2009, the research is on the effects of The Subprime Mortgage Crisis on the Chinese real economy. It distinguishes two channels of the crisis effects on the firms’ profits growth: trade channel and financing channel. It finds that the crisis has obviously negative impact on the firms with greater share of trade in sale and with greater ratio of short liability in total asset，which indicates that The Subprime Mortgage Crisis does have the negative effect on the enterprise performance through the trade channel and the financing channel, and the conclusion is still valid after a series of robust tests. The evidence also shows that the transmission channels of The Subprime Mortgage Crisis on enterprises performance existed differences in scale, ownership, region and industry, showing obviously directional feature.