中国区域碳排放强度的空间计量分析

在对中国2000-2012年30个地区的碳排放强度数据进行估算的基础上，利用Moran’I空间自相关统计量检验了历年各地区的碳排放强度之间的空间自相关性，在空间自相关检验的基础上，以STIRPAT模型为理论基础，利用空间滞后模型研究了各种影响因素对中国区域碳排放强度的影响。结果表明：历年各地区的碳排放强度之间均存在着明显的空间自相关性；人口结构、能源强度、能源结构和产业结构这四项因素是中国碳排放强度的主要影响因素。

Spatial Econometric Analysis of Regional Carbon Intensity

After estimating the carbon intensity of 30 provinces in our country from 2000 to 2012, this paper uses spatial autocorrelation statistic Moran's I index to examine the spatial autocorrelation of the carbon intensity of all provinces during the period. Then based on STIRPAT model, it studies the effects of all factors on regional carbon intensity using spatial lag model. The results show that there is significant spatial autocorrelation among the carbon intensity of all provinces. And population structure, energy intensity, energy structure and industrial structure are the main factors influencing carbon intensity.