中国双边农产品贸易流量及潜力研究——以新兴市场为例

本文基于扩展的引力模型从两个层次分析了中国与新兴市场国家农产品贸易流量的影响因素，并对贸易潜力进行了测算。研究结果显示，在总量层次上，经济规模、人口规模对中国双边农产品贸易的扩大起到了促进作用，而经济距离对中国双边农产品贸易的发展产生了一定的制约，各类区域经济组织作用不同，在分类层次上，除人口规模的影响不确定外，其他主要因素的作用与总量层次相同；中国与新兴市场国家农产品双边贸易在总体上表现为“贸易不足”，在五类农产品进出口上属于“贸易不足”的国家较多，表明中国与新兴市场国家的农产品贸易合作潜力巨大。最后，本文提出了相应的政策建议。

A Study on the Flow and Potentiality of China Bilateral Agricultural Products Trade--Give the Emerging Market as an Example

Based on the gravity model, it analyzes the influencing factors of the flow of agricultural products trade and calculates the trade potential between China and Emerging Market Countries from two levels. The results show that in the aggregate level, the economic scale and population size promote the expansion of China bilateral trade in agricultural products, the economic distance constraints China bilateral agricultural products trade and the regional economic organizations have different roles. In the classification level, the impact of population size is uncertain and the roles of other major factors are same as aggregate level. In general, the agricultural products trade between China and Emerging Markets Countries display inadequate potential. In five categories of agricultural products on the import and export, more emerging market countries belong to “inadequate trade”, and there are huge potentialities of development. Finally, it puts forward some policy suggestions.