制度变迁过程的历史沉淀成本效应分析

在新古典完全竞争市场理论——历史沉淀成本决策无关性的假设前提背景下,从未来不确定性、信息不完全和财务预算约束等角度考察历史沉淀成本对制度变迁过程的影响,为制度变迁过程确立一个新的分析视角,从而弥补了原有研究的不足。在现实经济生活中,市场不完全是常态,有限理性、交易成本、信息不完全和环境不确定性等因素普遍存在,历史沉淀成本很容易发挥作用,从而表明:未来越不确定,信息越不完全,资源越稀缺,导致财务预算越硬,历史沉淀成本效应越大,制度变迁过程越困难;反之越容易。由此可发现,在放松完全竞争市场的假设前提条件下,当事人的决策不可能不受到历史沉淀成本的影响。因此,只有当事人对历史沉淀成本的约束条件作出正确的理性反应,才能使其决策更加贴近真实世界,这对于全面认识制度变迁过程具有重要的理论创新意义和现实指导价值。

Analysis of the Historical Sunk Cost Effect in Process of Institutional Change

Based on the existing sunk cost literature,we propose the historical sunk cost concept,and explain the institutional change process in the new perspective.In order to analyze the historical sunk cost effect,we take future uncertainty,imperfect information and financial constraints into account,we focus on the past sunk cost effect under objective or(and) subjective resource scarcity.Hence we shed light on the historical sunk cost effect,try to identify the logic of the historical sunk cost effect,and enrich the modern economic theory,reacting to historical sunk cost in institutional change process can be understood as rational behavior under some environments,leading easily to path dependence in the real world,and provide some policy implications to deal with the institutional change towards the historical sunk cost management.