| 基于能源消费的长三角地区碳排放趋势研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 葛昕明,巩在武.基于能源消费的长三角地区碳排放趋势研究[J].阅江学刊,2012,4(2):61-66. |
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| 作者姓名： | 葛昕明 巩在武 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学,南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金“直觉型偏好群体共识决策理论与方法研究”(71171115)、“残缺信息环境下的专家直觉型判断知识融合与决策方案优选研究”(70901043);教育部人文社会科学研究项目“基于灰偏好的群体决策理论及应用研究”(09YJC630130) |
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| 摘 要： | 采用IPCC碳排放技术指南提供的能源消费碳排放计算公式对长三角地区1996年—2010年能源消费的碳排放量进行计算,在此基础上分别建立灰色预测GM（1,1）模型和Gompertz曲线模型预测和分析长三角地区未来碳排放趋势。长三角地区能源消费碳排放量正处于而且还将处于持续增长阶段,短期内难以达到峰值;长三角地区应积极发展新能源,逐步降低煤炭在能源消费中的比重,进一步优化能源消费结构,控制和降低能源消费碳排放量。
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| 关 键 词： | GM（1 1）模型 Gompertz曲线模型 能源消费 碳排放 长三角地区 |
Study on the Trend of Carbon Emission Caused by Energy Consumption in the Yangtze River Delta |
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| GE Xin-ming,GONG Zai-wu.Study on the Trend of Carbon Emission Caused by Energy Consumption in the Yangtze River Delta[J].Yuejiang Academic Journal,2012,4(2):61-66. |
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| Authors: | GE Xin-ming GONG Zai-wu |
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| Institution: | (Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China) |
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| Abstract: | The formula for calculating carbon emission from energy consumption in the Guide to Carbon Emission published by the UN IPCC was employed to calculate the carbon emission caused by energy consumption from 1996 to 2010 in the Yangtze Delta,and the gray forecast model GM(1,1) together with Gompertz Curve Model was adopted to predict and analyze the future trend of the carbon emission from energy consumption in the region.The study suggests that the carbon emission from energy consumption in the Yangtze Delta is currently in a stage of steady growth,which will not reach its peak in short term.Active efforts should be made to develop new energy sources in order to lower the percentage of carbon consumption,further optimize the energy consumption structure,and control and reduce the volume of carbon emission caused by energy consumption. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) model Gompertz curve model energy consumption carbon emission Yangtze River Delta |
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