Estimation of interprovincial migration for Canada from place of birth by residence data, 1951–1961

In Canada, unlike many other countries, birth-residence data by age and sex are available in each of the decennial censuses from 1931 to 1961 which permit the estimation of intercensal net migration for the provinces and regions. After a brief discussion of the basic measures of migration from birth-residence data the paper focusses on the problems and procedures in estimating interprovincial net migration, 1951–1961 for Canada using “the place of birth survival ratio method, ” and it evaluates the estimates thus obtained. The evaluation of the estimates, taking into consideration the inherent limitations of the method and its merits compared with period migration estimates by the census survival ratio method and life table survival ratio method, suggests that the net migration estimates for the Canadian born by the place of birth survival ratio method are probably more reliable than those by the other two methods. One striking finding was that the net migration curves by age obtained from the census survival ratio and place of birth survival ratio estimates were smoother than the curve obtained with the use of the more accurate life table survival ratios. Furthermore, whatever the relative accuracy of net migration may be, the birth-residence approach is capable of furnishing more details about the net migration of the native born than by the standard survival-ratio methods. For the population under age 10 intercensal estimates were directly derived from the place of birth and residence distributions by age.