全球价值链下中国增加值贸易的效应研究——基于广义假设抽取法的分析

利用世界投入产出表相关数据,构建了多区域假设抽取模型,实证分析了全球价值链下中国增加值贸易的效应。研究发现:(1)中国与其他国家的贸易往来有助于提升自身对各行业的增加值消费,也有助于其他国家之间的增加值贸易以及其他国家的增加值消费,在全球价值链下中国的增加值贸易发挥了重要作用。(2)中国与其他国家贸易往来对不同的国家影响不一样,对美国、日本的增加值进出口影响较大。(3)全球价值链下中国的各行业增加值贸易的效应大小并不一致,部分行业的作用大于其他行业,例如农、林、牧、渔业的内部效应大于其他行业。根据以上结果,在全球经济一体化的格局下,中国有必要进一步扩大增加值贸易,其他国家也需要加强与中国的双边贸易,另外,在采取进出口税率调整等政策扩大增加值贸易时需要注意行业的差异。

Effect of the Value-added Trade of China in the Global Value Chains:Based on the Generalized Hypothetical Extraction Method

In this paper,we use the world input-output table data,with the multi-regional hypothesis extraction method,and analyze the effect of the value-added trade of China in the global value chains.The results showed that:(1 )The value-added trade between China and other countries to improve their consumption of the industry,but also increase the value-added trade and consumption between other countries,the Chinese value-added trade played an important role in the global value chains.(2)Effect of extraction Chinese trade with other countries of different countries is not the same,the United States, Japan's import and export value-added impact are greater.(3)The effect size of the industry value-added trades in China in the global value chains are not consistent,the role of some sectors more than other sectors.Agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery such as internal effect are greater than in other industries.Based on these results,in the pattern of global economic integration,China needs to further expand the value-added trade;other countries also need to strengthen trade partnership with China,in addition to taking in the import and export tariff adjustment policies to expand value-added business need attention differences industry.