人民币兑美元实际汇率与中美贸易收支关系的实证研究：基于人民币汇率改革以来的月度数据

在全球经济复苏的背景下,一些国家的贸易保护主义又开始抬头,关于中国对外贸易的问题又成为众人关注的焦点。文章基于人民币汇率改革以来的月度数据,通过构建VAR模型,运用单位根检验、Johansen协整检验以及误差修正模型等方法,对人民币实际汇率如何影响中国对美国的净出口作了实证分析。通过分析发现,人民币升值对改善中美贸易收支平衡状况存在显著影响,而从长期来看,改善中国贸易收支的关键在于中国经济的持续增长。

Empirical Study on Relations between Real Exchange Rate of RMB - dollar and Sino-US Net Exports:Based on Monthly Data since the Reform of RMB Exchange Rate System

In the context of global economic recovery,trade protectionism has begun to gain ground in some countries.The issue of China＇s foreign trade has become a focus of attention.Based on monthly data since the RMB exchange rate reform,this paper made an empirical analysis on how the real exchange rate of RMB affect Sino-US net exports,by building a VAR model,using the unit root test,Johansen co-integration test and error correction model.The analysis revealed that RMB appreciation had significant effect on Sino-US trade balance of payments,and that in the long run,China＇s economic growth is the key to improve China＇s trade balance.