中国股市的内生不确定性分析

中国股市的异常波动性不利于其健康发展。运用理性信念理论分析中国股市的内生不确定性，并对经典的CCK模型进行改进。实证分析得出内生不确定性是导致中国股市异常波动的关键性因素，在此基础上提出减缓中国股市波动的相应措施：建立完善投资者教育机制；逐步减少政府对股市的政策干预；加大信息披露监管力度，提高上市公司信息披露的真实性；提高上市公司质量，改善市场结构。

Research on Endogenous Uncertainty of Chinese Stock Market

The abnormal volatility of Chinese stock market is not in favor of its healthy development. This paper has theoretically analyzed the endogenous uncertainty of Chinese stock market using rational belief theory and also modified CCK model to test Chinese stock market econometrically. It educed that endogenous uncertainty is the key cause of the abnormal volatility of Chinese stock market. Based on the analysis, measures to reduce Chinese stock market volatility are proposed, namely, to build and improve investor education mechanism; to reduce government intervention in stock market step by step; to enhance administration of information disclosure; to improve the quality of listed companies and make market structure better.