| Abstract: | Voters who support tax limitations measures such as California's Proposition 13 seem to feel that their expected gains more than compensate for whatever costs may follow from a successful tax revolt. Costs can arise from a decline in government services or from an increase in some replacement tax if service levels are maintained. This paper estimates the perceived and actual incidence of a property tax revolt under alternative assumptions about voter perceptions and eventual outcomes. Our results suggest that the most visible benefits of a tax cut favor low-income homeowners. In the event of government budget cutbacks, it is possible that the distribution of services is sufficiently skewed toward low-income groups to reverse the incidence of a property tax revolt. |
