黄河三角洲乡村承接城市产业转移潜力及趋势

在全面建成小康社会和社会主义现代化强国关键期，深入推进乡村振兴战略至关重要，而实施乡村振兴战略，产业兴旺是首要。以生态脆弱区黄河三角洲为研究对象，采用云理论与关联函数构建乡村承接城市产业转移潜力测度模型，集成产业吸引、产业承接、产业选择和产业发展能力建立其潜力测度指标体系，对黄河三角洲乡村承接城市产业转移潜力进行纵向、横向与趋势三维度分析。结果表明:黄河三角洲乡村承接城市产业转移潜力在2008—2017年由较弱到常规潜力等级，再到较高潜力等级，总体上呈现出稳定提升的趋势，但其潜力等级均位于理想潜力等级之下，尚具有较大的提升空间；境内19个地区的潜力变化已呈现“三大梯度”的发展状态，而且各地区具有多样性的后期变动趋势，同时地区之间还存在相对明显的“都市联动”特征；趋势变迁分析中，黄河三角洲整体潜力维持相对稳定的态势，但仍存在局部短板指标影响其潜力的提升，尤其是后期发中需要注重“资本入乡、信息强乡、科技兴乡”等。

The Potential and Trend of Rural Undertaking Urban Industrial Transfer in the Yellow River Delta Rural Areas

In the critical period of building a well-off society and a socialist modernized power, it is important to implement the rural revitalization strategy, but industrial revitalization is the primary goal. Hence, the Yellow River Delta, an ecologically fragile area, was selected as the research object, and a measurement model of its rural areas’ potential in undertaking urban transfer was constructed based on the cloud theory and correlation function. Moreover, the rural indicator system for measuring the industrial transfer potential of the city was constructed covering industrial attraction, industry undertaking, industry selection and industrial development capability, and then the rural industrial transfer potential of the Yellow River Delta was analyzed from vertical, horizontal and trend dimensions. Results showed that, the potential for rural areas undertaking urban transfer in the Yellow River Delta’s countryside was from weaker to conventional potential level to higher potential levels during 2008—2017, and it generally showed a trend of steady improvement. However, its potential level was below the ideal potential level, and it still had much room for improvement. The changes in the potential of the 19 regions showed a development state of “three major gradients” , and each region had a variety of late-stage trends, while there were relatively obvious “urban linkages” between regions. In the trend change analysis, the overall potential of the Yellow River Delta would maintain a relatively stable trend, but there were still local short-board indicators that affected its potential, especially the injection of capital, information development, scientific and technical level, etc.