中国合意城市化率研究

城市化是中国经济发展的必然要求。当经济持续发展到一定阶段,消除农村与城市的差距,实现社会公平,吸收转移掉农业剩余劳动力并保持农业规模不下降时,我们认为中国的城市化便达到一个合意的城市化水平,即合意城市化率。本文将从宏观角度出发,根据历年的统计资料,结合模型分析,得出中国合意城市化率,为 63%左右。更重要的是,我们认为中国下阶段经济增长的关键点是加速城市化进程,达到合意城市化水平。作为本文分析的中间成果,我们在保持农业规模不下降的条件下,根据柯布—道格拉斯生产函数,借助回归分析和二维搜索等数学方法,求出中国农业剩余劳动力数目,为 2.06亿人。

The Optimal Urbanization Ratio of China

Urbanization is an essential demand of China's economic development. When economy reaches a stage at which the gap between rural and urban regions is eliminated, social equality is realized and the surplus agricultural laborers are absorbed without the agricultural production falling down, we say the urbanization of China is on an optimal level. The ratio is the optimal urbanization ratio, which is about 63%. More important, we consider that the key point of the economic growth in the next stage of China is to speed up the urbanization and reach the optimal urbanization ratio.