农村“宗教热”原因探究：宗教社会风险假说

基于宗教理性选择理论,提出宗教风险假说,认为风险以及风险应对能力是人们做出宗教选择的一个重要因素。从市场经济、贫困和弱势群体等角度,根据作者调查数据、国家统计数据以及其他全国和局部调查数据,对上述假设进行了检验。结果表明:(1)市场经济中的宗教需求要高于计划经济;(2)市场经济越发达的地区,信教密度就越高;(3)弱势群体的宗教需求要高于强势群体。这些结果证明了宗教风险假说的合理性。最后依据该假说,提出针对当前农村"宗教热"政策建议主要有两点:(1)降低农村人口所面临的风险;(2)提高其应对风险的能力。

Reasons of "Rural Religion Fever":Religion Social Risk Hypothesis

Based on religion rational choice theory,this paper put forward a religion social risk hypothesis,that risk and capacity to overcome risk are the most important factors in religion choice.We examine the hypothesis from prospects of marketing system,poverty,and weak group using data from field work by ourselves,statistic data from government and national or regional level data from field work by other researchers.The results show that(1) the religiosity of people in marketing system is higher than that in planning system;(2) the religiosity of people in regions of developed marketing system is higher than that in religions of developing marketing system;(3) the religiosity of weak group is higher than that of strong group.Those results prove the religion social risk hypothesis.Frnacly,the paper points out the meaning of rural religion fever,which is to reduce the risk faced to by peasants and enhance the capacity of them to overcome the risk.