实物期权法在投资项目决策中的应用研究

以净现值法为代表的传统投资决策方法已不适应外部环境的快速变化,越来越难以正确评价投资机会的真实价值。针对传统方法在项目投资决策应用中的缺陷,展开用实物期权理论来修正传统项目投资决策方法的研究,并对企业应用实物期权法提出了一些建议:正确认识外部环境的不确定性,将实物期权法恰当应用到投资项目决策中,培养管理者认识、分析和处理风险的能力,根据项目的不确定性以及企业资源能力基础选择不同的投资决策方法。

Research on Application of Real Option in Investment Project Decision

As the enterprise operation environment becoming more and more complex and uncertain,the traditional investment decision methods,represented by the NPV principle,can not be suitable for evaluating the real value of investing opportunity any longer.Considering the limitation of the traditional methods,this paper tries to propose a new theory,the option theory,as a substitution of the present method,to evaluate investment decisions.The paper also gives some suggestions on the application of real option,for example: fully realize the uncertainty of outside environment;apply the method properly in investment decisions;cultivate managers' ability of recognizing risks and analyzing and dealing with them;choose investment decision methods according to the resources of the enterprise and the uncertainty of the project.