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Latin America's recovery from debt problems: An assessment of model-based projections
Authors:Victor S Filatov  Richard P Mattione
Institution:Morgan Guaranty Trust Company, 23 Wall Street—3/23 New York, NY USA
Abstract:This paper examines economic assumptions used in assessing prospective economic adjustment of Latin America in response to its debt problems. The analysis compares forecasts obtained by combining parameter estimates from different researchers' trade models with the authors' macroeconomic models for Brazil. Chile, and Mexico. The influence of econometric procedure on simulation results is discussed. Then, by simulation analysis, the following issues are addressed: (1) likelihood of high domestic growth rates for Latin America in the late 1980s; (2) whether OECD growth or interest rates have a larger impact on developing-country economies; (3) effects of dollar depreciation and high interest rates on Latin America's debt problems.
Keywords:Address correspondence to the authors at Morgan Guaranty Trust Company  23 Wall Street—3/23  New York  NY  USA
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