| 基于灰色PSO-BP人口预测模型的研究与应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋若凡,姜玉梅,李菲雅.基于灰色PSO-BP人口预测模型的研究与应用[J].西北人口,2011,32(3):23-26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋若凡 姜玉梅 李菲雅 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川师范大学历史文化学院,成都,610068
2. 西南财经大学,成都,610074 |
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| 基金项目： | 四川省教育厅青年基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 人口问题是一个复杂、受诸多因素影响的社会问题,准确地预测我国人口数量对于制定国民经济计划和社会发展战略有着深远的意义。本文针对单一指标进行人口总量预测精度不高的问题,利用灰色预测所需信息少和神经网络非线性映射能力强的优点,筛选出与人口总量紧密联系的7个主要因素,建立了多指标灰色PSO-BP神经网络人口预测模型,并对2010年至2020年我国人口总量进行预测。实证分析表明,该模型预测和外推精度高,具有较好的实用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色模型 粒子群算法（PSO算法） BP神经网络 人口预测 |
Study and Application of Population Forecast Model Based on Grey system and PSO-BP Neural Network |
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| JIANG Ruo-fan,JIANG yu-mei,LI Fei-ya.Study and Application of Population Forecast Model Based on Grey system and PSO-BP Neural Network[J].Northwest Population Journal,2011,32(3):23-26. |
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| Authors: | JIANG Ruo-fan JIANG yu-mei LI Fei-ya |
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| Institution: | JIANG Ruo-fan1,JIANG Yu-mei2,LI Fei-ya1(1.Sichuan Normal Univertity,Sichuan Chengdu 610068,2.Southwestern Univertity of Finace and Ecomics,Sichuan Chengdu 610074) |
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| Abstract: | Population is a complicated issue which are influenced by lots of factors.Accurate prediction of population size shows far-reaching meanings toward making national ecnomic plan and social development strategy.Aiming at low precision of totoal population prediction by single target,This paper takes the advantage of gray prediction which needs less information and stronger neural networks mapping,filtrates 7 main factors connecting closely with total population,and builds multi-target gray PSO-BP neural netwo... |
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| Keywords: | gray Model BP neural networks Particle swarm optimization(PSO) Population prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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