| 三峡库区人口预测与和谐长江三峡构建研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 查中伟,刘学飞.三峡库区人口预测与和谐长江三峡构建研究[J].西北人口,2011,32(3):100-103. |
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| 作者姓名： | 查中伟 刘学飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆三峡学院,重庆万州,404000 |
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| 基金项目： | 重庆市教育委员会科技项目，重庆三峡学院重点科技项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 研究了中国长江三峡库区人口容量现状。结合三峡工程建成后库区实际,利用人口动力学方法建立了三峡地区人口发展预测数学模型,由此可以定量化地预测长江三峡库区未来人口发展状态。根据我国人口政策,提出了人口发展预测和控制,推进人口发展方式转变和管理体制创新是构建和谐三峡之首要任务的建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口容量 人口发展预测 数学模型 和谐三峡 |
The Study on Population Forecast of Three Gorges Reservoir-region and Constructing Harmonious Three Gorges of Yangtze River |
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| ZHA Zhong-wei,LIU Xue-fei.The Study on Population Forecast of Three Gorges Reservoir-region and Constructing Harmonious Three Gorges of Yangtze River[J].Northwest Population Journal,2011,32(3):100-103. |
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| Authors: | ZHA Zhong-wei LIU Xue-fei |
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| Institution: | ZHA Zhong-wei,LIU Xue-fei(Chongqing Three Gorges University,Chongqing Wanzhou,404000,China) |
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| Abstract: | We studied present situation of population capacity in the Three Gorges Reservoir-region of the Yangtze River of China.And based on the practical situation of Reservoir-region after the Three-Gorges Project finished,we have established population-development forecast's mathematical-model of the Three Gorges area with the population dynamics method,which may quantitatively forecasts the future population-development condition in the Three Gorges Reservoir-region of the Yangtze River.According to the populati... |
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| Keywords: | Population capacity Population development forecast Mathematical-model Harmonious Three Gorges |
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