ATTRIBUTION ERROR IN ECONOMIC VOTING: EVIDENCE FROM TRADE SHOCKS |
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| Authors: | Rosa C. Hayes Masami Imai Cameron A. Shelton |
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| Affiliation: | 1. 1‐212‐720‐82471‐212‐720‐1582;2. Senior Research Analyst, Research Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY 10045;3. 1‐860‐685‐21551‐860‐685‐2301;4. Professor, Department of Economics, Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT 06459‐0007 |
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| Abstract: | This article exploits the international transmission of business cycles to examine the prevalence of attribution error in economic voting in a large panel of countries from 1990 to 2009. We find that voters, on average, exhibit a strong tendency to oust the incumbent governments during an economic downturn, regardless of whether the recession is home‐grown or merely imported from trading partners. However, we find important heterogeneity in the extent of attribution error. A split sample analysis shows that countries with more experienced voters, more educated voters, and possibly more informed voters—all conditions that have been shown to mitigate other voter agency problems—do better in distinguishing imported from domestic growth. (JEL E3, E6) |
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