Risk Decision Making in Operational Safety Management– Experience from the Nordic Benchmark Study |
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Authors: | Jan Holmberg,Urho Pulkkinen,Kurt Pö rn,Kecheng Shen |
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Affiliation: | VTT Automation, Industrial Automation, P.O. Box 1301, FIN-02044 VTT, Espoo, Finland.;Pörn Consulting, Skivlingvägen 24, S-61163 Nyköping, Sweden.;Studsvik EcoSafe, S-61182 Nyköping, Sweden. |
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Abstract: | Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) and Studsvik AB, Sweden, have simulated decision making of the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and a power company by applying decision models in a benchmark study. Based on the experience from the benchmark study, a decision analysis framework to be used in safety related problems is outlined. By this framework both the power companies and the safety authorities could be provided with a more rigorous, systematic approach in their decision making. A decision analytic approach provides a structure for identifying the information requirements of the problem solving. Thus it could serve as a discussion forum between the authorities and the utilities. In this context, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has a crucial role of expressing the plant safety status in terms of reactor core damage accident probability and of risk contributions from various accident precursors. However, a decision under uncertainty should not be based solely on probabilities, particularly when the event in question is a rare one and its probability of occurrence is estimated by means of different kinds of approximations. |
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Keywords: | Decision making decision analysis probabilistic safety assessment nuclear power plant safety safety management |
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