不同黏性对中国经济波动和货币政策的影响——基于贝叶斯估计的新凯恩斯DSGE模型

考察了中国宏观经济波动和货币政策.研究结果显示:包含3种黏性机制的DSGE模型比传统的仅含一种黏性机制的DSGE模型能更好地拟合和解释中国现实经济特征;黏性信息企业占中国全部企业54.01％,混合黏性价格企业占43.63％,弹性价格企业占2.36％;不同黏性机制下,外生冲击对经济变量波动的解释度存在显著差异,并且经济变量对外生冲击的脉冲响应及动态调整路径存在显著差异;对不同黏性机制行业的通胀做出系统性反应能够提高中国货币政策有效性.

Empirical effect of different stickiness regimes on macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary policy in China

The paper studies the macroeconomic fluctuations and the monetary policy in china.The results show that:the DSGE model with three stickiness regimes can better fit and explain economic characteristics than the DSGE model with one stickiness regime in China;three stickiness regimes enterprises account for 54.01％,43.63 ％,and 2.36％ of all the enterprises in China respectively;it is significantly different with the variation of economic variables explained by exogenous shocks in different stickiness regimes,so do impulse responses and dynamic adjustment paths of economic variables.The effectiveness of monetary policy can be improved if monetary policy could make systemic responses to inflation of different stickiness regime industries in China.