| 中国的生育率:到底下降了多少? |
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| 引用本文： | Minja Kim Choe,CHEN Jiajian,李希如,崔红艳. 中国的生育率:到底下降了多少?[J]. 人口研究, 2004, 28(4): 3-15 |
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| 作者姓名： | Minja Kim Choe CHEN Jiajian 李希如 崔红艳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 美国东西方中心
2. 国家统计局人口和社会科技统计司 |
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| 摘 要： | 1990年代以来 ,中国的生育水平持续下降 ,已经进入低生育国家的行列。 2 0 0 0年人口普查 ,中国的总和生育率为 1 2 2 ,明显存在漏报。那么中国的生育率到底下降了多少 ?本文利用亲生子女法、生育史重构法和胎次递进比方法分析了 1 990年代生育率的下降过程 ,认为 2 0 0 0年总和生育率最准确的估计应为 1 5 8。通过分解总和生育率的变化 ,认为 1 990年代生育水平的下降 ,2 /5归因于结婚年龄的推迟 ,3/5归因于婚内生育率的下降
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| 关 键 词： | 总和生育率 亲生子女法 生育史重构法 胎次递进比 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-07-01 |
Fertility in China:How Much Has It Really Declined? |
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| Robert D. Retherford is Coordinator and Senior Fellow,Population and Health Studies,East-West Center, Minja Kim Choe is Senior Fellow,Population and Health Studies,East-West Center, Chen Jiajian is Senior Fellow,Population and Health Studies,East-West Center, Li Xiru is Director,Section of Geographic Environment,Population Division,National Bureau of Statistics, Cui Hongyan is Deputy Director,Section of Population Census,Population Division,National Bureau of Statistics.. Fertility in China:How Much Has It Really Declined?[J]. Population Research, 2004, 28(4): 3-15 |
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| Authors: | Robert D. Retherford is Coordinator Senior Fellow Population Health Studies East-West Center Minja Kim Choe is Senior Fellow Population Health Studies East-West Center Chen Jiajian is Senior Fellow Population Health Studies East-West Center Li Xiru is Director Section of Geographic Environment Population Division National Bureau of Statistics Cui Hongyan is Deputy Director Section of Population Census Population Division National Bureau of Statistics. |
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| Abstract: | China has achieved low fertility in the 1990s. According to 2000 population census, total fertility rate in China was 1.22 in 2000, which implies substantial under-reporting of births. But how much has fertility really declined? This paper analyzes fertility in the 1990s using own-children method, birth history reconstruction method and parity progression ratios, and reaches an estimate of a TFR of 1.58 in 2000. Decomposition of TFR shows that Chinese fertility decline in the 1990s is attributable to both marriage deferral (43%) and decline in martial fertility (57%). |
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| Keywords: | Own-children method Birth history reconstruction method Period parity progression ratios Total fertility rate |
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